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Arctic Portal Portlets Climate Change and Sea Ice Portlet
| Climate Change and Sea Ice Portlet |
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Climate Change and Sea Ice are closely interconnected. It is likely that greenhouse-gas-induced Arctic warming is one of the major factors for the significant decline in sea ice area and thickness observed in many Arctic seas over the past few decades. General circulation computer models of the atmosphere project that greenhouse warming will occur more intensely over the Arctic in the future than any other part of the planet, largely because melting snow and ice will replace lighter surfaces with darker tundra and ocean surfaces, lowering the albedo, decreasing the sunlight reflected from the Arctic, and so accelerating the warming trend. Sea Ice further holds an important role in trapping Co2 from the atmosphere (SAMS 2009) which otherwise would contribute to global warming.
Due to the interconnection of climate change and sea ice these issues will be covered in one place rather than dividing it into two categories. If you wish to go directly to the Sea Ice section click the Image below or utilize the links to get directly to specific topics within these two subjects.
Climate Change
Climate Change or Global Warming refers to the increase in the average temperature of the Earth’s near surface air and oceans since the mid 20th century. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded that increasing greenhouse gas concentration resulting from human activity such as fossil fuel burning and deforestation are the biggest contributors to global warming. Climate Change is, in the eyes of many, the key issue in the Arctic and one of the key issues faced by human kind as a whole. Climate change has been highly disputed and there are those who maintain that human induced climate change does not exist and the swift warming occurring over the two last centuries is a part of the earth’s natural cycle. It can, non the less, be said that within the scientific community there is a relative consensus that global warming is indeed at least partially human induced. The scientists that conclude that human effect is marginal are all but extinct. Since the 1880, average temperatures have climbed 0.8° Celsius (1.4 ° Fahrenheit) and the rate of warming is increasing. Much of this increase can be traced back to the last couple of decades. The 1980’s and 90’s were the hottest in 400 years and possibly the warmest for several millennia. IPCC reported in 2007 that 11 of the past 12 years had been among the dozen warmest since 1850. Further increase of 1.1° to 6.4° Celsius (2.0 ° to 11.5 ° Fahrenheit) have been estimated during the twenty first century.
Greenhouse GasesMost of the observed temperature increase since the 1940-50's were caused by increasing concentration of greenhouse gases. Greenhouse gases closely correlate human activity such as fossil fuel burning and deforestation. Greenhouse gases are gases in an atmosphere that absorb and emit radiation within the thermal infrared range. This process is the fundamental cause of the greenhouse effect. Greenhouse gasses are in the correct amount quite necesseray and natural and without them it has been estimated that the earth surface temperature would be on average 33 degrees colder. The main greenhouse gases in the earth atmosphere are in accordance to their abundance;
Climate model projections summarized in the latest IPCC report indicate that the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.1 to 6.4 °C (2.0 to 11.5 °F) during the 21st century. The uncertainty in this estimate arises from the use of models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations and the use of differing estimates of future greenhouse gas emissions. An increase in global temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change the amount and pattern of precipitation, probably including expansion of subtropical deserts. Warming is expected to be strongest in the Arctic and would be associated with continuing retreat of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other likely effects include changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, species extinction, and changes in agricultural yields. Warming and related changes will vary from region to region around the globe, though the nature of these regional variations is uncertain. The scientific consensus is that anthropologic global warming is occurring. Nevertheless, political and public debate continues. The Kyoto Protocol is aimed at stabilizing greenhouse gas concentration to prevent a "dangerous anthropogenic interference". As of November 2009, 187 states have signed and ratified the protocol. Source: (IPCC) Effects of global warming:The effects of global warming are believed to be extensive. Estimating the precise effect is not possible as there as several unknowns in the equation so this should be regarded as best available estimates rather than facts. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that global warming will continue to grow and get worse much faster than was expected. Effects of a rise in global temperature are severe. Warm and dry countries will become even drier and warmer often severely challenging the local population and making water an even scarcer commodity than it is today. Countries within most continents are likely to be affected by this but most prominently large regions of Africa. This will add to political unrest and some scientist have estimated that large migrations of people to north may follow as regions of the globe will no longer be available to sustain its current population. The list below includes some of the estimated effects.
Source SPENCER R. WEART The Battle Against Climate Change:
The UNFCCC does not lay down any binding limits of reduction, but divides the signatories to the convention in to three categories each category agreeing to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gas a certain amount. First category of industrialized countries, so called Annex I countries, agree to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gasses to targets that are mainly set below their 1990 levels. These countries are Australia, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Monaco, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, UK and USA. Annex II countries, developed countries that are to pay for the costs of developing countries for their efforts to reduce greenhouse gasses, are Australia, Austria, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, USA and the European Union. Finally, in the Annex III are developing countries and countries with economy in a transition. Today, the UNFCCC enjoys near-universal membership having 192 signatory members. The members meet annually in Conferences of the Parties (COP), in which they assess progress and negotiate binding rules on greenhouse gas emissions. One of the most significant COPs has been the COP-3 in 1997 in Kyoto, Japan, where the so called Kyoto Protocol, the legally binding protocol on emission reduction, was adopted. Kyoto ProtocolThe major feature of the Kyoto Protocol where the targets for 37 industrialized countries and the European Community for reducing greenhouse gas emissions .The target is an average of five per cent against 1990 levels between 2008-2012. In addition to the limits, the Kyoto Protocol introduces three mechanisms how the targets are to be met. Primarily, the countries must reduce their emissions through national measures, meaning that they have to take action to actually diminish their greenhouse gas pollution. But since the economies of most countries are highly dependent on indutries that are high pollutors, three other mechnisms were introduced to ease the reduction scheme. The first mechanism introduced in the Kyoto Protocol is the Emissions Trading. Emissions trading, as set out in Article 17 of the Kyoto Protocol, allows countries that have emission units to spare - emissions permitted them but not "used" - to sell this excess capacity to countries that are over their targets. This scheme is in use for example in the European Union and is one of the largest trading schemes in operation. Second mechanism provided by the Kyoto Protocol is the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), defined in Article 12 of the Protocol. The CDM is a purchase system where saleable certified emission reduction (CER) credits can be earned by implementing an emission-reduction project in developing countries. This is a unique global environmental investment system and there exists now 1849 registered CDM project activities. Third mechanism is so called „joint implementation” ,defined in Article 6 of the Kyoto Protocol. The „joint implementation“ allows an Annex II country to earn emission reduction units (ERUs) from an emission-reduction or emission removal project in another Annex II country through a flexible and cost-efficient foreign investment and technology transfer. The Kyoto Protocol entered into force on 16 February 2005 and has today been ratified by 184 countries. COP 15 – Copenhagen, 7-18 DecemberThe 15th Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC (COP 15) and the 5th Meeting of the Parties (MOP 5) to the Kyoto Protocol will be held in 55 days, 7-18 December 2009, in Copenhagen, Denmark. The COP15 / MOP5 are of special significance because of the goals set forth in the Bali Road Map. In the Bali Road Map it was stated that in Copenhagen, a post-Kyoto Protocol action is to be negotiated. The fact is that the consequences of the climate change are getting increasingly apparent and in the Arctic alone it has been estimated that the sea ice will melt in ever accelerating rate the North pole being ice free over the summer time already as soon as in 2040. Ad Hoc Working Group on Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP) has been preparing the COP 15 / MOP 5 and most participants seem to agree that a positive outcome for the global community can be reach in the COP Meeting. However, it is to be seen how the global recess has influenced the ability of the major industrialized countries to act upon their commitments and how far they are willing to go to futher the legally binding commitments for the post-Kyoto era.
Uppdate 2010: Cop 15 was concluded a while ago and it can be said that it did by no means live up to the high hopes that it would be a landmark in dealing with climate change. The Arcitc Portals coverage of COP 15 can be seen here
Arctic Sea Ice
 The Arctic Sea Ice is one of the key symbols of the cold and barren Arctic regions, and affects the lives of both arctic and non-arctic residents. Sea Ice significantly contributes to the worlds whether patterns and help to keep the globes temperature down.
Measurements of sea Ice during 2010 have reinforced the general belief that the sea ice is declining year from year. In this coverage the AP will present an overview of these changes as well as some of the possible implementations, opportunities and effects this may have, based of information from leading scientific institutions involved in snow and ice measurements. Sea ice being white has a much higher reflection than other earths surfaces, making it function as a giant mirror reflecting the suns radiation into space. This is reflectiveness is referred to as "albeido" It has been estimated that Sea Ice reflects as much as 50-95% of the suns radiation while an open ocean surface only reflects about 10-15%. This reflection contributes significantly to keeping atmospheric temperatures cooler. Additionally this keeps the ocean in the northern hemisphere cooler, helping to maintain the planet's ocean conveyor system. With the rapid decline in Sea Ice, documented in recent years there is the risk of a cicle of warming as higher atmospheric temperatures contribute to loss of sea ice and further loss of sea ice contributes to more atmospheric warming, this effect is known as the "ice-albedo feedback". The prevailing view among climate scientists had been that an ice-free Arctic ocean would occur in the 2070 - 2100 time frame. The February 2007 report from the U.N.-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), warned that without drastic changes in greenhouse gas emissions, Arctic sea ice will "almost entirely" disappear by the end of the century. The recent observations and the Holland et al. model study suggest that it is conceivable that a complete loss of summer Arctic sea ice will occur far earlier. In a 2007 interview published in The Guardian, Dr. Mark Serreze, an Arctic ice expert with the National Snow and Ice Data Center, said: "If you asked me a couple of years ago when the Arctic could lose all of its ice, then I would have said 2100, or 2070 maybe. But now I think that 2030 is a reasonable estimate. It seems that the Arctic is going to be a very different place within our lifetimes, and certainly within our children's lifetimes." While natural fluctuations in wind, ocean circulation, and temperatures are partly to blame for this loss of sea ice, human-caused global warming is also to blame. In the words of Dr. Serreze: "The rules are starting to change and what's changing the rules is the input of greenhouse gases. This year puts the exclamation mark on a series of record lows that tell us something is happening."
The decline of the Sea ice is likely to have a wide number of impacts to both the world in general and of course specifically the Arctic. These impacts are likely to be both negative and positive. The Arctic Portal will cover the issue from various perspectives and regularly update the Climate Change and Sea Ice Portal as time goes on. The video below was put together by the Arctic Portal using data from the IARC-JAXA project showing the transition in Sea ice from June 2002- 14 Julie 2010
Current Developments
From July 1 to 15, Arctic sea ice extent declined an average of 60,500 square kilometers (23,400 square miles) per day, 22,500 square kilometers (8,690 square miles) per day slower than the 1979 to 2000 average and substantially slower than the rate of decline in May and June. Ice extent remained lower than normal in all regions of the Arctic, with open water developing along the coasts of northwest Canada, Alaska and Siberia. (NSIDC 2010) *Arctic Dipole anomaly “In a 2008 article titled, Recent radical shifts of atmospheric circulations and rapid changes in Arctic climate system Zhang et al. show that the extreme loss of Arctic sea ice since 2001 has been accompanied by a radical shift of the Arctic atmospheric circulation patterns, into a new mode they call the Arctic Rapid change Pattern. The new atmospheric circulation pattern has also been recognized by other researchers, who refer to it as the Arctic Dipole (Richter-Menge et al., 2009). “ Source: Dr Jeff Masters- Weather Underground
Effect on biodiversityLess sea ice coverage and changes in melt patterns in the arctic has various implications for biodiversity of the Arctic regions, the affect is in many cases not clear and it's full reach not clear, the few facts mentioned below should be considered as examples rather than a full analyze.
Warmer temperatures cause the melt to happen earlier than usual. Under this scenario, there has been less growth of ice algae and it is discharged before sufficient sunlight is present to cause the phytoplankton bloom. The bloom is then delayed until sunlight is available but without the added fuel from the ice algae. Less phytoplankton is produced and it is consumed by zooplankton before it reaches the seafloor. This scenario is considered more favorable to fish in the pelagic zone feeding on zooplankton. The change in timing of the phytoplankton bloom affects which predators consume the phytoplankton and the effect is carried all the way up the food chain. Colder temperatures and more sea ice normally support benthic (bottom-dwelling) communities like crustaceans and in turn the marine mammals and diving sea ducks that prey on them. In contrast, warmer temperatures and reductions in sea ice result in more food available for fish in the pelagic zone (water column). Scientists are concerned that a loss of spring phytoplankton production may in turn reduce the overall productivity of the Bering Sea ecosystem Quite a number of animals also directly base their subsistence on the Ice coverage such as polar bear, walrus, hooded seal and the narwhal. Sea Ice provides protection as well from predators like the killer whale also known as Orca whale that now have easier access to prey in arctic waters. The interlinkage of global warming and retreating sea ice is also likely to change the biological composition in the region as new species move further into the Arctic, with existing species moving further north, often creating challenges connected to their access to their food supply. The loss of ice will open the Arctic to new levels of shipping, oil and gas exploration and drilling, fishing, hunting, tourism, and coastal development. These, in turn, will add new threats to marine mammal populations, including ship strikes, contaminants, and competition for prey.
Effect on whether patterns :It is a common misunderstanding that melting Sea Ice will contribute to a rise in Sea levels, since the Sea Ice is already floating in the Ocean this would be very minimal and has been estimated to be around 4mm if the entire world Sea Ice melted. The loss of Sea Ice would however contribute to a overall warmer Arctic which will accelerate the melting of the Greenland icecap, which would lead to a Sea level rise of 20 feet or 6 meters. Such a Sea level rise could have quite a significant effect on the globe, the video below illustrates some of the effects of a rise of 6 meters.
Effect on the jet stream and planetary weather patternsContinued loss of Arctic sea ice may dramatically change global weather and precipitation patterns in the decades to come. The jet stream will probably move further north in response to warmer temperatures over the pole, which will bring more precipitation to the Arctic. More frequent and intense droughts over the U.S. and other regions of the mid-latitudes may result from this shift in the jet stream. Changes to the course of the jet stream affect weather patterns for the entire planet, and we can expect impacts on the strength of the monsoons and re-curvature likelihood of hurricanes. Francis et al. (2009) found that during 1979 - 2006, years that had unusually low summertime Arctic sea had a 10 - 20% reduction in the temperature difference between the Equator and North Pole. This resulted in a weaker jet stream with slower winds that lasted a full six months, through Fall and Winter. The weaker jet caused a weaker Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low during the winter, resulting in reduced winter precipitation over all of the U.S., Alaska, and Northern Europe. In contrast, increased precipitation fell over Spain, Italy, and Japan during these winters. The authors noted that strong La Niña or El Niño events can have a much stronger influence on the wintertime atmospheric circulation, which will overshadow the circulation changes due to summertime Arctic sea ice loss. Such as the strong La Niña event occurred during the winter of 2007 - 2008. In any case, reduced summertime Arctic sea ice should give most of the Northern Hemisphere a delayed start to winter during most years, for the foreseeable future.Coastal damage in the Arctic More open water also means more moisture and heat will be available to power storms. These stronger storms will bringer higher winds and higher storm surges to coastal areas in the Arctic over the remainder of the 21st century, resulting in increased erosion and flooding of low-lying areas.
Effect on the local population:Sea Ice affects all people as a part of the whether system that enables humans and other species to exist, but the decline in sea ice will have a more prominent affect local people. Storms are likely to gradually become stronger and more frequent and land erosion by the sea will continue to increase. The declining sea ice and previously unknown changes commonly connected with climate change are having a significant effect on various indigenous groups in the Arctic. Subsistence activities still have a significant meaning to numerous arctic indigenous groups both from a cultural as well as economic stand-point. Numerous indigenous groups around the Arctic region have been very active in promoting the issues connected to climate change and traditional knowledge increasingly being accepted within the scientific community. Both indigenous groups as well as other inhabitants of the North will have to adapt to the changes at hand and due to the gradual nature of these changes it should be easier to adapt. The environment has of course been changing for all history even if these changes connected to global warming are unprecedented, many of these changes may offer quite a bit of opportunities alongside the challenges created. Traditional knowledge and climate change
OppertunitiesShipping:
Energy exploration: Less Sea Ice could further enable access to the vast natural reserves located in the Arctic which would contribute further to the regions economic stability, it does however need to be noted that the loss of sea ice in this context could be both a good thing as well as something creating a problem. Less sea ice would mean better access but at the same time mean stronger waves and storms which could endanger infrastructure such as platforms for oil and gas exploration. - For further information on Arctic Energy issues please visit our Energy Portal Tourism: With less sea ice coverage, it could be estimated that more cruise ships would venture into the Arctic, which also creates the need for more infrastructure and offers local communities opportunities to offer services to tourists and further build up the Arctic infrastructure. All of these opportunities mentioned have their upside and downside as well. These activities have the possibility if they are not closely managed to pose an environmental threat to the in many ways fragile region, but also could offer quite an opportunity to spur sustainable growth in the North. |
The Arctic Portals Climate Change and Sea Ice Portal is intended to give individuals access to material according to each ones need in connection to the subjects This will consist of recent news articles, scientific reports and other relevant material.
The International response to climate change was initiated at the Earth Summit in Rio De Janeiro in 1992 with the signing of the U.N Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It is an international treaty on environmental law aiming at reducing the greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere.
Some argue that the process of achieving both consensus and rigor in the IPCC report yields a "conservative" estimate of climate change. It is true that predictions which involve phase changes are among the most difficult for climate models. This is made even more challenging for sea ice, which sits in water and is subject to amplified melting by stirring in the water, and is also sensitive to the local salinity of the water. If there are to be surprises in the predictions of climate change, then they are likely to involve phase changes. In a warming climate, this would involve the transition of water from ice to liquid.
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